Friday, January 26, 2007

not so quick hit

where are we with this last in the division team? well 46 games down 36 to go is one place. pc is openly ruminating about making some changes. he says defense or a fiesty foward is on his radar and he says he has deals he can pursue today. are these motivators for guys? he also says that he has about a million to work with under the cap presently. can a one million dollar guy come in here and help this team? there is a rumor floating around that a couple of oiler defenseman are coming for b-stu and m-stu (thats m sturm) . lastly the trade deadline is about a month away.

personally when the boyes were only able to take down 4 of 8 points before the allstar break i started writing off this season. some gritty intensity in the next week and 6 out of the next 8 points might bring me back to thinking this is a playoff team but this means beating buffalo and ottowa and new york....or buffalo twice - im not holding my breath.

so your wondering about brad stuart? well talk has been vague.... i believe the sides already have and agreement. its one of two things- pc is going to move brad to a playoff team or they have a nice new contract worked out, but it will not be signed until a day before the deadline - this is because any raise given to stuart on a new contract will also count towards this years cap (thats my understanding of the CBA). unless a deal comes soon, put your money on new contract in about a month.

so lately i have been wondering about stats and a more comprehensive system for rating hockey players like sabermetrics does for baseball. one problem with just looking at the typical stats sheet is that it just has players numbers listed per game. but when you try to measure players against each other you run into problems - for instance on the bruins roster you have guys like chara who plays 30 minutes a game so of course his blocked shots are going to be much higher than a milan jurcina who averages 11 minutes a game. well i have taken sometime the last couple of days and broken down the team stats by a players effectiveness per minute of ice time.
i then went a step further and took a number of stats to create the nebmatrix number for each player on the bruins.

running these numbers i can tell you the average bruin hits someone every 27 minutes of ice time. of regular players b-stu leads the team in hitting throwing a check every 10 minutes of his ice time. not surprisingly phil kessel is in last place having thrown a check every 70 minutes - remember this is ice time - phil hits someone once every 6 games.

the average bruin blocks a shot every 28 minutes- both stuarts mark and brad do well in this stat 8.4 and 10.2 minutes of ice respectivly for these two between their blocks....last? well glen murray, maybe remembering his bruised foot of last season has only ventured in front of a shot every 80 minutes.

missed shots? the average bruin misses the net every 31 minutes - any guesses - yup patrice leads the troops in putting it on the glass with a missed shot every 15 and half minutes (actually seems like a lot more). the best bruin in this stat? andrew alberts - i guess when you contribute this little offense you bettter get every shot you muster on net.

the average bruin coughs up the puck every 44 minutes. patrice leads in this catorgory as well, giving it up every 15 minutes he skates around. team leader? chistov who is only turning it over every 94 minutes he plays.

the average bruin steals the puck every 53 minutes- team leader was yan - but of the remaining guys its mark mowers picking one every 28.7 minutes. unable to take a puck given to him? paul mara who steals at a pathetic rate of once every 159 minutes. by the way patrice is getting those pucks he loses back at once every 31 minutes.

minute of ice per goal? average 159 minutes - team leader wade brook bank scoring every 30 minutes of total ice.... but this was too small a statistical sampling so of the regulars... glen murray at one every 40 minutes - now this is where this type of break down comes in handy the next 5 "(all fowards of course) - savard 50mpg, kessel 60mpg, sturm 62mpg, bergeron 63mpg, pj 86 mpg.

min per assist- average bruin - 85 minutes leader - savard mpa of 20.5 . last tenkrat at 124 mpa.

lastly the nebermatrix - this is essentially my own formula for how many minutes of playing time it takes each player to have a positive affect on the game. the average bruin scores a 31 - the perfect player scores around a 7-8 with the lower the number the better. i used the gordie howe hat trick of a fight, a goal, an assist and being very active in steals, blocks, hits and with few give aways to define the perfect player.

ANDREW ALBERTS 50.7
ZDENO CHARA 27.8
NATHAN DEMPSEY 53.6
MILAN JURCINA 60.4
MATT LASHOFF 52.7
BRAD STUART 28.9
PAUL MARA 54.0




P.J. AXELSSON 20.3
MARC SAVARD 14.5
GLEN MURRAY 18.5


MARCO STURM 22.0
PATRICE BERGERON 14.9
BRAD BOYES 19.6




JEFF HOGGAN 49.8
WAYNE PRIMEAU 21.5
SHEAN DONOVAN 31.0


MARK MOWERS 38.6
PHIL KESSEL 22.9
PETR TENKRAT 27.5
S CHISTOV 24.2

Labels:

18 Comments:

Blogger Doobie said...

Stats! Now that's what I'm talking about!

8:18 PM, January 26, 2007  
Blogger jimbuff said...

I'm lost with how you did this but even your method shows what I have been saying since hbefore he played his 1st game: Chara is just a slightly above average player and is overrated and overpaid!

10:39 PM, January 26, 2007  
Blogger TreeBob said...

Actually jim from looking at some other D-men he is still the best scored defencmen. To be fair so far we have only checked Buffalo. We will need to try it on some other teams or individual players. Neb is working on correcting a few problems. He may publish a finished version in the coming days.

10:53 PM, January 26, 2007  
Blogger jimbuff said...

Treebob:
Being the best scored d-man on the bruins can still mean that you are only average - we are not blessed with a team of bobby orrs remember.

7:18 AM, January 27, 2007  
Blogger neb said...

i have been running some other players nebermatrix numbers

joe thornton 20.7
nic lidstrom 30.9
sydney crosby 11.6
the two defensemen rumored in oiler deal
marc bergeron 24.4
jason smith 73.3

the entire buffalo defense
5 of six in the 30's

11:17 AM, January 27, 2007  
Blogger number4bobbyorr said...

This is a really interesting statistical analysis.

It seems to show very well what most of us and Lewis already know: that Chara is the GOD of Bruins defense--jimbuf you are nuts! You can't compare defensemen to forwards with this stat because they don't score as often. And that Bergeron, Savard and Murray are the core of the offense.

It also shows why PC is shopping for a defenseman; Chara and Stuart are the only ones with good numbers. And it fits with how little ice time Lewis gives to Jurcina.

So given that reality check I see some surprises: Boyes looks better than I thought, as does Kessel. PJ looks good, given that we all know he isn't a big goal scorer. Sturm is not playing up to his potential --we saw that on the ice the other night when he played much better, leaving me wondering why the effort hasn't been there until now..

What happened to York?

I must admit some confusion as to how Kessel got such a low score. I mean, he never hits, get's the puck stripped often, and doesn't score that much. So what gives there? Why did he score so low?

Did you make this numbers up neb? :-)

12:28 PM, January 27, 2007  
Blogger TreeBob said...

I was wondering if you had died or worse stopped reading the blog!!

How have you been?

12:41 PM, January 27, 2007  
Blogger neb said...

here is how kessel does so well...he shoots a lot and the shots go in when he takes them...and remember its based on min's per production - he gets very few minutes but has produced some goals.
that said i may be rating goals too high - as treebob and i have been discussing behind the scenes... but in my mind i keep coming back to the fact that goals are the only measure of how a game is decided....

i dropped some players out as i am having trouble dealing with how to rate guys who do not have any statistics in the categories im using.

1:36 PM, January 27, 2007  
Blogger neb said...

todays ottawa nebermatrix numbers:

DANIEL ALFREDSSON 14.43
DANNY BOIS 13.56
MIKE COMRIE 15.43
JOSEPH CORVO 27.48
PATRICK EAVES 16.59
MIKE FISHER 16.25
DENIS HAMEL 16.77
DANY HEATLEY 12.88
JOSHUA HENNESSY 46.73
ALEXEI KAIGORODOV 10.70
CHRIS KELLY 17.35
TOMAS MALEC 39.77
DEAN MCAMMOND 22.11
BRIAN MCGRATTAN 31.46
ANDREJ MESZAROS 32.91
CHRIS NEIL 19.65
SERGE PAYER 92.98
CHRIS PHILLIPS 39.69
TOM PREISSING 34.40
WADE REDDEN 32.27
PETER SCHAEFER 20.35
CHRISTOPH SCHUBERT 25.10
JASON SPEZZA 19.93
ANTOINE VERMETTE 16.31
ANTON VOLCHENKOV 138.12

1:48 PM, January 27, 2007  
Blogger TreeBob said...

my comment was to you number 4

2:00 PM, January 27, 2007  
Blogger TreeBob said...

it may be a good idea to limit the players that go into the template. Like for instance maybe a minimum of 30 games or something. Bois has only played one game and it is obvious he is a nobody.

2:04 PM, January 27, 2007  
Blogger neb said...

he did his job for that one game...got like 3 minutes of ice and got into a fight

2:07 PM, January 27, 2007  
Blogger neb said...

more nebermatrix numbers:

top 20 scoring d-men in the league:

player team neber #
perfect d-man a-star 12.03
S NIEDERMAYER ANA 24.21
SHELDON SOURAY MTL 13.98
DAN BOYLE TBL 21.91
NICKLIDSTROM DET 29.62
CHRIS PRONGER ANA 24.79
TOMAS KABERLE TOR 27.35
L VISNOVSKY LAK 17.70
SERGEI GONCHAR PIT 16.97
PHIL BOUCHER DAL 16.89
BRYAN MCCABE TOR 22.00
KIMMO TIMONEN NSH 18.05
RYAN WHITNEY PIT 20.38
DION PHANEUF CGY 20.10
M SCHNEIDER DET 16.43
ANDREI MARKOV MTL 49.76
SERGEI ZUBOV DAL 27.77
BRIAN CAMPBELL BUF 28.82
BRIAN RAFALSKI NJD 81.88
ZDENO CHARA BOS 26.78
JOHN-M LILES COL 16.74

you may ask whats wrong with rafalski? its goal scoring... this is a stat that measures the players ability to effect the outcome of a game... if you do not score you do not do well... i have been debating devaluing the goal but can not justify it in my mind - lets face it goals win games.

3:32 PM, January 27, 2007  
Blogger neb said...

same list but if you value the assist equal to the goal....

player team neber #
perfect d-man a-star 7.89
S NIEDERMAYER ANA 17.97
SHELDON SOURAY MTL 10.91
DAN BOYLE TBL 16.29
NICKLIDSTROM DET 23.43
CHRIS PRONGER ANA 17.74
TOMAS KABERLE TOR 19.93
L VISNOVSKY LAK 13.54
SERGEI GONCHAR PIT 12.95
PHIL BOUCHER DAL 13.34
BRYAN MCCABE TOR 16.00
KIMMO TIMONEN NSH 14.17
RYAN WHITNEY PIT 14.61
DION PHANEUF CGY 15.51
M SCHNEIDER DET 12.38
ANDREI MARKOV MTL 32.99
SERGEI ZUBOV DAL 21.36
BRIAN CAMPBELL BUF 20.29
BRIAN RAFALSKI NJD 53.60
ZDENO CHARA BOS 19.67
JOHN-M LILES COL 13.17

3:43 PM, January 27, 2007  
Blogger number4bobbyorr said...

"same list but if you value the assist equal to the goal...."

I think that's a better stat; assists are just as important as goals (as I keep trying to tell my two "puck hog" kids).

Hey treebob. I've just been busy--our local outdoor skating rink is open. We only get a few weeks in a good year, so we try to make the most of it.

4:39 PM, January 27, 2007  
Blogger neb said...

number four... from a team stand point i completely agree with you, i would also agree with you if they only gave out one assist per goal (i think). but i wanted this stat to reflect the individual - therefore plus minus is not included and assists are not as valuable as goals.....as a certain number of assists do not reflect any individual talent....

4:58 PM, January 27, 2007  
Blogger Nevets said...

Neb, you have way too much free time. I am so jealous.

Anyway, as I watched this game today, I had to take a step back from my normal viewpoint and get real. This team needs help bad. I do not see anything good happening with the current UFA situation, trade deadline looming, and underachieving goal scorers.

Patrice- we need more from him. I saw such flashes of brilliance before, he needs to step it up. This year he is just mediocre with occasional proof of his talent.

Boyes- WHAT HAPPENED? Last year I thought he was an absolute find who would help lead this team to better things.....but he has no energy on the ice this year, and his production shows it.

It hurts to see these games in hand being pissed away!

BTW Neb- it is now OK to start talking playoff seeds- its after the all star break- but unfortunately, unless PC can pull a Theo or Lewis can pull a Herb Brooks, this season isnt looking good.

10:20 PM, January 27, 2007  
Blogger number4bobbyorr said...

"unless PC can pull a Theo or Lewis can pull a Herb Brooks, this season isnt looking good."

I half agree. For most the season they have improved, and I was happy. But they peaked before the Nashville game. Making the plaoffs is about which team can keep getting better and the B's will be left behind if this is all they can manage.

But I really don't think that adding a player is a panacea that will solve the problem. It's not a talent problem, it's a team problem. Lewis has steadily got more out of these guys, but if he can't keep that going then he either has to start seriously kicking some player's butts or we will need a new coach.

9:58 PM, January 28, 2007  

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