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I am going to predict that Timmy Thomas comes out of the 2007-2008 season as the clear number one goalie for the next season. I do not boldy predict usually, but lets review some numbers.
The Manster saw 26.3 shots per game in Minny.
Timmy saw 30.1 shots per games in the Hubster.
What these numbers do not tell you is the quality of these chances. I did not see many Manny games, but I would bet his 26.3 shots were on average unremarkable shots. The variety where there is pressure on the shooter from the defence. While Timmy needed to see a shrink by mid-season after seeing his buds in front of him not worry about impeding a puck carrierer. These shots were of the cross crease, alone in the slot, pull you hair out 30.1 times per night variety, that goalies have dreams (for the competive ones,) or nightmares about (for the collect a paycheck types).
While both goalies hopefully will benefit from improved team defence in Boston (and hopefully a dash of disipline- see 10 too many on the ice penalties) and some guys going to the puck instead of retreating to the Revere, I see the firey attitude Tim has had to adopt eventually earning him more starts.
Tim will show the doubters around here why his lower save percentage of .905 to Manny's more impressive looking .911 is smoke and mirrors. While were on it does everyone understand what these numbers really mean? 90.5 percent of the shots Tim sees he stops on a team that played zero defence and intimidated no one. While Manny was saving 91.1 percent of the shots in front of one of the games most respected defensive coaches teams. Lets do some math shall we? The difference in save percentage, anyone, anyone, Bueller? Thats right, .6 percent. This works out to something like Tim giving up one extra goal per every 6-12 games. By the way Manny's team had 28 more points than Tims. I bet Manny's team never really folded up the fly and the defensive tent anytime his team got down by a goal or two either.
So back to my prediction, while Manny will be solid and get 3 of 5 games to start the season. Tim will start stealing the games he is in and earn the larger number of split duty action for the second half of the season.
The Manster saw 26.3 shots per game in Minny.
Timmy saw 30.1 shots per games in the Hubster.
What these numbers do not tell you is the quality of these chances. I did not see many Manny games, but I would bet his 26.3 shots were on average unremarkable shots. The variety where there is pressure on the shooter from the defence. While Timmy needed to see a shrink by mid-season after seeing his buds in front of him not worry about impeding a puck carrierer. These shots were of the cross crease, alone in the slot, pull you hair out 30.1 times per night variety, that goalies have dreams (for the competive ones,) or nightmares about (for the collect a paycheck types).
While both goalies hopefully will benefit from improved team defence in Boston (and hopefully a dash of disipline- see 10 too many on the ice penalties) and some guys going to the puck instead of retreating to the Revere, I see the firey attitude Tim has had to adopt eventually earning him more starts.
Tim will show the doubters around here why his lower save percentage of .905 to Manny's more impressive looking .911 is smoke and mirrors. While were on it does everyone understand what these numbers really mean? 90.5 percent of the shots Tim sees he stops on a team that played zero defence and intimidated no one. While Manny was saving 91.1 percent of the shots in front of one of the games most respected defensive coaches teams. Lets do some math shall we? The difference in save percentage, anyone, anyone, Bueller? Thats right, .6 percent. This works out to something like Tim giving up one extra goal per every 6-12 games. By the way Manny's team had 28 more points than Tims. I bet Manny's team never really folded up the fly and the defensive tent anytime his team got down by a goal or two either.
So back to my prediction, while Manny will be solid and get 3 of 5 games to start the season. Tim will start stealing the games he is in and earn the larger number of split duty action for the second half of the season.
Labels: Tim Thomas
posted by neb at Sunday, September 02, 2007
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10 Comments:
Geeze neb, I thought I was the lone Timmy supporter.
What gets me going is recalling how game after game Timmy would keep them in it only to have the team fail to score, or skate out at the start of a period like they didn't really care anymore. No goaltender can play all by himself. I mean, as it see it Timmy's primary failing was he didn't score enough goals. :-)
If it were the other way around then I'd understand the criticism of Timmy. If game after game the team battled to take the lead or tie only to have a soft goal ruin their chances then I'd agree. But after watching 80 games last year from start to finish (I'm a masochist) I know that's not how it went down. That did happen--but not very often. What more do people want from a goaltender?
(shakes head)
"What more do people want from a goaltender?"
The ability to stand on their head, deflect every puck shot at them and pull wins out of their nether regions...even though none of their teammates did much to help out... consistently, and especially in the playoffs. In other words, the answer is immortality...or at least a Hall-of-Fame caliber goalie. Problem is that the Bruins have been chasing that in a goaltender for years and still haven't found it.
Fernandez's stats coming unto this season may not mean too much. Once the two of them start playing games with the same supporting cast around them is when we'll be able to see who's better. However, I'm sure Thomas will see his share of time, no matter what...be it injury or inconsistent play, Fernandez has never been able to handle the load for a full season.
This reminds me of something that occurred to me last year about our Bruins: there's not a single goaltender's number hanging from the rafters.
hey everyone come vote for the bruins to beat the sens.
http://nhllogos.blogspot.com/search/label/open%20poll
#4,
however, there are a number of Bruins' goaltenders I would love to hang from those rafters.
Number4: I still want to know why Tiny Thompson's #1 isn't retired...
Gotta give it to you Timmay lovers, you never give up, do you? :-)
You raise good points with the stats AND the quality of the shots Fernandez faced.
But don't underestimate Manny. I bet he takes over, even though I like Thomas.
Hopefully Julien can show these guys how to play team D.
"Hopefully Julien can show these guys how to play team D."
Or team anything.
Hell, I'd settle for consistent effort, rather than only trying for a shift here and a shift there; a period here and a period there; a game here and a game there...
Julien really has is work cut out for him. I wonder if he knows what he's got himself into?
I think it is a throw up, who ever sucks less
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