Tuesday, January 30, 2007

how the bruins stack up...and where i believe the problem lies

as i speak they are getting clobbered again 2-0 against buffalo....

i created earlier this week the nebermatrix number for players. i have run up each team in the div and here is every players number and their team averages and totals. remember the lower the number the better.

buffalo
montreal
JASON POMINVILLE 10.56 MICHAEL RYDER 11.98
THOMAS VANEK 11.95 SAKU KOIVU 13.11
CHRIS DRURY 12.14 G. LATENDRESSE 13.15
MAXIM AFINOGENOV 12.86 SHELDON SOURAY 13.55
ALES KOTALIK 13.85 CHRIS HIGGINS 13.61
DANIEL BRIERE 15.71 MAXIM LAPIERRE 14.94
JOCHEN HECHT 16.08 TOMAS PLEKANEC 16.95
DEREK ROY 16.70 ALEX KOVALEV 18.22
PAUL GAUSTAD 18.41 MIKE JOHNSON 19.26
DREW STAFFORD 18.48 ALEXANDER PEREZHOGIN 21.57
DANIEL PAILLE 20.41 MARK STREIT 22.19
JIRI NOVOTNY 22.92 RADEK BONK 23.12
BRIAN CAMPBELL 30.54 SERGEI SAMSONOV 27.72
HENRIK TALLINDER 32.89 STEVE BEGIN 32.27
JAROSLAV SPACEK 33.99 CRAIG RIVET 32.86
DMITRI KALININ 49.79 AARON DOWNEY 41.14
ADAM MAIR 55.60 FRANCIS BOUILLON 43.59
ANDREW PETERS 78.52 MICHAEL KOMISAREK 43.61
TONI LYDMAN 110.26 ANDREI MARKOV 54.04
NATHAN PAETSCH 205.47 MATHIEU DANDENAULT 86.00
TEPPO NUMMINEN 326.32 GARTH MURRAY 140.02
average 43.25 JANNE NIINIMAA 268.59
total of top 17 392.88 average 44.16
total 12-17 304.25 total of top 17 379.24
top 11 88.63 total 12-17 244.32


top 11 134.92












ottawa
toronto
DANY HEATLEY 11.76 MATS SUNDIN 12.25
DANIEL ALFREDSSON 13.61 DARCY TUCKER 12.45
MIKE FISHER 13.96 ALEXEI PONIKAROVSKY 14.10
MIKE COMRIE 14.40 NIK ANTROPOV 15.13
PATRICK EAVES 14.41 JEFF O'NEILL 15.82
DENIS HAMEL 14.98 JOHN POHL 16.77
ANTOINE VERMETTE 15.00 MATT STAJAN 17.42
CHRIS NEIL 16.25 BOYD DEVEREAUX 18.47
CHRIS KELLY 16.29 CHAD KILGER 19.18
JASON SPEZZA 17.68 ALEX STEEN 19.25
PETER SCHAEFER 19.28 BATES BATTAGLIA 20.35
DEAN MCAMMOND 20.59 TRAVIS GREEN 22.75
CHRISTOPH SCHUBERT 24.60 MICHAEL PECA 24.11
JOSEPH CORVO 26.12 TOMAS KABERLE 28.41
TOM PREISSING 31.74 BRYAN MCCABE 29.46
ANDREJ MESZAROS 32.56 CARLO COLAIACOVO 29.81
WADE REDDEN 32.96 PAVEL KUBINA 30.53
CHRIS PHILLIPS 34.87 HAL GILL 52.37
BRIAN MCGRATTAN 59.81 KYLE WELLWOOD 52.55
ANTON VOLCHENKOV 311.35 BRENDAN BELL 56.64
average 37.11 IAN WHITE 58.41
total of top 17 336.20 BEN ONDRUS 66.34
total 12-17 203.44 WADE BELAK 84.75
top 11 132.76 ALEKSANDER SUGLOBOV 110.19


average 31.19


total of top 17 346.25


total 12-17 217.44


top 11 128.82




boston


PATRICE BERGERON 12.96

MARC SAVARD 13.40

GLEN MURRAY 16.42

MARCO STURM 17.02

BRAD BOYES 17.64

WAYNE PRIMEAU 18.18

P.J. AXELSSON 19.38

PHIL KESSEL 20.98

STANISLAV CHISTOV 21.57

PETR TENKRAT 26.13

ZDENO CHARA 27.42

BRAD STUART 28.86

SHEAN DONOVAN 29.40

MARK MOWERS 37.29

PAUL MARA 53.77

MILAN JURCINA 60.81

JEFF HOGGAN 95.46

YAN STASTNY 101.37

JASON YORK 169.79

MATT LASHOFF 226.00

NATHAN DEMPSEY 283.67

ANDREW ALBERTS 290.88

average 72.20

total of top 17 516.71

total 12-17 406.97

top 11 109.73

9 Comments:

Blogger neb said...

quick summary - the bruins top 11 forwards are 2nd best in div - the rest of the team is very subpar.... esspecially the d-men...

7:41 PM, January 30, 2007  
Blogger neb said...

by the way - i have been tweaking the calculation of the nebermatrix and i will probably continue to tweak it....so if these numbers are a little different than the ones from earlier in the week thats why... this post is for you to compare all of the players in our division as of today. remember games played does not matter the nebermatrix is a reflection of production per minute played.

7:56 PM, January 30, 2007  
Blogger TreeBob said...

Our D-Fence are pathetic. Except for Brad and Z

7:58 PM, January 30, 2007  
Blogger TreeBob said...

Of course this is heavily favoured to goal scoring defencmen, so take it with a grain of salt everyone.

Either way it still shows a weakness on the team and that is what is most important.

8:00 PM, January 30, 2007  
Blogger neb said...

actually - i think treebob and i are going to continue to disagree on this one... i am not really looking at the nebermatrix number that is high as a bad thing like he is. the neber matrix number is essentially the number of minutes a player plays before he makes a positive effect on the outcome of the game. this does not mean that he is negativly effecting the team in these minutes - that would be a different calculation based on different stats. this soley reflects how long it takes for a player to do something positive.

that said the thing that effects the outcome of a game the more than anything is a goal, therefore goal scorers rate higher....

8:08 PM, January 30, 2007  
Blogger Doobie said...

Hey Neb, can you explain that formula one more time?

8:06 AM, January 31, 2007  
Blogger neb said...

ok ready - i calculate how many minutes per stat each player has:

for instance - glen murray averages 39.8 minutes of ice time per goal.

phil kessel steals a puck every 36.9 minutes of ice...ect

so i take these minutes per achievment numbers and factor each for my oppinion of importance to the outcome of the game - from lowest importance to highest:
pim, shot, four equal wieghted:hit, block, take, give, then assist and goal.

i then divide this down to make is a nice looking number that kind of correlates to what i percieve as the average number of minutes on the ice it takes each of the players to do something that effects the outcome of a game for the better for his team.

if someone has not recorded one of these stats i have to fudge it a little but this is nuance...

9:35 AM, January 31, 2007  
Blogger number4bobbyorr said...

"four equal wieghted:hit, block, take, give, then assist and goal."

Neb, if the point is to consider positive impact only, then why include givaways?

10:38 AM, January 31, 2007  
Blogger neb said...

this should actually probably read as a puck possession stat. what i am actually doing is subtracting for gives and adding for takes - does that make sense? i didnt think it was fair to give a player a huge bonus if he has a lot of steals while also giving it away a lot....

11:03 AM, January 31, 2007  

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